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The Methodology backtest → indicators → filters → board Backtested Framework
The Thesis
“a scoring dip that isn't backed by lost volume is usually a fluke, not a decline”
That's the whole framework — shooting percentage mean-reversion, but only when shot volume and deployment held steady. Proven last year by Boldy and Zibanejad, then hardened into four filters and a tiered board.
The Backtest · Proof of Concept last season's SH% hunch, scored against reality
57.1
Overall Accuracy / 100
84.5
Top-6 Avg (Hits)
29.7
Bottom-6 Avg (Misses)
95 92 88 82 78 72 55 40 30 28 15 10 HITS · 84.5 MISSES · 29.7 Boldy Zibanejad Nelson Lafrenière Forsberg Terry Horvat Matthews Schenn Kreider Marchessault Vatrano
Four Filters every candidate must clear
01 · AGE
Age
≤ 31
Young players regress to the mean harder. 33+ = yellow flag.
02 · VOLUME
Shot Volume
SOG/GP ≥ 80%
A SH% dip with stable or rising shots is a fluke, not a decline.
03 · ROLE
Deployment
PP1 · Top Line
Opportunity hasn't dried up — power-play role intact.
04 · TREND
Trajectory
No 2+ yr slide
One bad year ≠ decline. Two straight down years = pass.
Screening Funnel all five must clear
STEP 1
SH% dip > 3.0%
below 2-yr average
STEP 2
SOG/GP ≥ 80%
of prior-year level
STEP 3
Age ≤ 31
elite PPG exception
STEP 4
Prior PPG ≥ 0.65
2-yr average
STEP 5
No multi-year decline
trajectory intact
The Board this year's 10 survivors
Must-DraftYoung + massive SH% gapKent Johnson · Adam Fantilli
High ConfidencePerfect metrics, no flagsBoeser · Strome · Hischier
Elite UpsideStars at depressed ADPsPoint · Pettersson
ConditionalStrong profile + one flagMiller · Hintz
Volume PlayElite volume = inevitableTimo Meier